What Follows the Disengagement Plan?

On the eve of the visits of Sharon and Abu-Mazen to the United States, the question of what follows the Disengagement Plan becomes acute. Below are five policy-options.

What’s the Issue?

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• Israel's Disengagement Plan does not offer guidelines for the ensuing political process aside from a reference connecting it to the Roadmap.

• PM Sharon reiterates his commitment to the Roadmap and to the idea of a Palestinian State with Provisional Borders (hereinafter “PSPB”) before discussions concerning Permanent Status.

• However, it appears that the Roadmap is heading towards an impasse:

  • Israel maintains that a PSPB will be established in the Second Phase of the Roadmap without discussions on Permanent Status issues e.g. borders; refugees/right of return; Jerusalem or Holy Places;

  • Palestinians demand that PSPB not be established without assurances regarding the Third Phase (Permanent Status).

Why is this Important? Why Now?

• Sharon and Abu-Mazen are scheduled to visit the United States. On the top of their agenda will be the question of what follows the Disengagement Plan.

• The Palestinians fired the first shot concerning the aftermath of the Disengagement Plan:

  • The Palestinians said they wanted to skip the Second Phase of the Roadmap (PSPB) and advance directly to the Third Phase (Permanent Status);

  • Israel is adamant that a PSPB be established in the Second Phase of the Roadmap.

• Under these circumstances, which currently lead to a deadlock, on the one hand, and Palestinian pressure to advance directly to discussions on Permanent Status, on the other hand, it is likely that pressure will be placed on:

  • Israel to present a viable political process following the Disengagement Plan;

  • Palestinians to adhere to the Roadmap, based on the idea of a PSPB that comes into being before a comprehensive agreement.